Daniel Dubois and Fabio Wardley are set to rematch tomorrow in what should be an action-packed slugfest. The WBO heavyweight title is on the line, with defending champion Dubois having won the belt in May by stopping Wardley via technical knockout in the eleventh round.
The first fight was a pay-per-view main event that delivered the goods. Dubois was on the canvas in the opening seconds and was knocked down again in the third round. But the fortunes of the two fighters reversed, and Dubois handed Wardley the kind of beating that can end careers.
It is surprising to see Wardley back in the ring so quickly, and even more surprising that the rematch is happening so soon after such a brutal fight. Can Dubois do it again, or will Wardley get his revenge?
Key Factors
1. Wardley’s Successes in the First Fight
Fabio dropped Dubois in the opening seconds of the first fight. He used his jab to disguise the right hand and even slapped Dubois’s glove out of the way to clear a path for his punch. He repeated the tactic in the third round, putting Dubois down to a knee. Despite absorbing an incredible amount of punishment, Wardley never stopped trying and continued landing solid blows late into the fight.
2. Wardley’s Failures in the First Fight
Fabio fell in love with his setup and became predictable. Wardley did not have an extensive amateur career, and I think that lack of experience showed. He had no Plan B. When the initial one-two combination stopped working, he kept plugging away with the same approach.
Missing shots badly tired him out. By the time he landed flush later in the fight, his stamina was so depleted that his punches couldn’t turn the tide. Wardley’s leaky defense, which was also a problem in the Justice Huni fight, became a major factor in the first contest.
3. Dubois’s Successes in the First Fight
Dubois’s use of the jab, control of distance, growing ability to anticipate the right hand, and overall offensive arsenal carried the day. He also proved he could take Wardley’s best punch. Wisely taking a knee in the third round allowed him to avoid unnecessary punishment and preserve himself for the later rounds, when he took control of the fight.
4. Dubois’s Failures in the First Fight
Dubois got caught early and visited the canvas twice. It was nearly a disastrous evening for Daniel, and those early knockdowns showed just how dangerous Wardley can be.
5. Wardley’s Opportunities
Wardley has more room for growth following the loss. There is plenty he can improve upon. However, given his limited amateur experience, I’m not sure how much he will be able to adjust in such a short time.
Dubois crouched low to evade the right hand and slip inside, opening himself up to the uppercut. Wardley landed a hard one deep into the first fight, but he was too tired for it to change the momentum.
A better-paced Wardley who works behind his jab and changes the trajectory of his right hand could turn the tide. We know he can hurt Dubois. If he can land those shots again, he may finish the job this time.
6. Wardley’s Six-Pound Weight Gain
What does Wardley’s weight gain tell us? Did he bulk up to be more resilient against the larger Dubois? Does he intend to wrestle more on the inside and match Dubois’s strength? Or is the extra weight a consequence of the beating he took in the first fight and interruptions to his training?
The weight gain raises questions, but we’ll have to see how it affects Wardley’s stamina, mobility, and ability to sustain his offense.
Prediction
Daniel Dubois by technical knockout in the ninth round.
After the initial scare, the first fight turned into a massacre. Dubois has been knocked out before, but he typically needs to be worn down over the course of several rounds. I don’t think Wardley has the arsenal to land consistently enough to do that.
Dubois has taken massive right hands from Anthony Joshua, Filip Hrgović, and Wardley. Wardley can certainly punch, although his stoppage wins over Huni and Joseph Parker were controversial.
I believe Dubois will once again wear Wardley down, with the accumulation of punches ending the fight sooner than last time. Wardley can win if he cashes in with a big punch. I just don’t think he will.
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