Fight Day: Canelo vs Munguia Thoughts

Previous thoughts and statements on the fight:

March 3, 2024:

I agree I think Munguia has the height and reach to be an issue but doesn’t know how to use it

He is very tough and is taking hard punches without going down but I just feel the fact that he gets hit as often as he does and does get rocked is a very bad sign

For me Alvarez’s poison pill is movers with a good jab and guys that can jab him to the ropes but don’t get sucked into firefights. Golovkin had the jab part but not the avoid firefights. Bivol took what GGG did and expanded upon it.

If Munguia had a history of smart boxing behind a jab and using his reach I’d give him more of a chance but he doesn’t do that

February 26, 2024

I think it will be entertaining I just give Munguia no real chance to win

March 3, 2024

I don’t think so. Munguia does hit hard and can throw in volume but I don’t think he fits the blue print of what has troubled Canelo

Final Thoughts

I read bits and pieces of Tim Bradley’s take on ESPN+ in an article behind their paywall. I have not spent much time preparing an analysis for the fight but I wanted to get my opinion and prediction out there. Jaime Munguia first came on the scene in the wake of the Canelo Alvarez Clenbuterol scandal that delayed the Alvarez rematch against Gennady Golovkin. Munguia was an option for Golovkin but the fight was then denied by the California commission who refused to sanction it. He was an unknown Mexican fighter in his early twenties without any meaningful fights. Fast forward to 2024 and Munguia has held and defended a title at 154 and has remained undefeated at 43-0 with 34 KO’s. Oddly enough, in a time of many titles floating around and the ability for major promoters to play politics, Munguia has not fought for a title in roughly five years. There seemed to be a very slow management of Munguia who has been beating world class fighters but has not stepped up into a title fight or faced a truly elite or pound for pound type of fighter while being surrounded by several. Munguia has also changed trainers and I felt he made several improvements with Erik Morales but he has made further refinement under Freddie Roach.

Tim Bradley sees a path to victory for Munguia based around a few factors. Munguia’s output often doubles Alvarez in activity who has declined in recent years in punch totals. Munguia is younger and taller which can assist him at range. His body punching can be effective under Alvarez’s high guard and offset his rhythm. His ability to take a punch may see him standing strong and fighting hard down the stretch as Canelo fades as he has done in prior fights. However, despite this optimism and analysis of how Munguia could win, he picked Alvarez by stoppage within ten rounds.

Like Bradley, I see some of the opportunities for Munguia to win. However, this reminds me much of the stuff people would say before a Mayweather fight, this guy is young, strong, throws a lot of punches and can fight hard for twelve rounds. Then we would watch that high output fighter see their punching totals cut in half, pacified by counters and dominated. My initial instinct on this fight is one sided beat down and that is why they made this fight. While Munguia has never been knocked down to my knowledge and has not been stopped, I would not say he has an iron chin. I have certainly seen him buzzed by smaller fighters and fighters not necessarily elite. His defense has always been a major flaw in his game but his offense and power has often masked the issue. I do feel the work with Morales and Roach have seen him boxing smarter behind a jab but it does not seem natural. He can box in spots and limit exchanges when necessary but he also has not been doing it at an elite level.

Alvarez has been troubled mostly by the likes of Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara, Floyd Mayweather, Gennady Golovkin and Dmitry Bivol. These fighters all boxed on the outside behind a jab and countered effectively. Golovkin and Bivol were big and strong enough to push Alvarez back to the ropes. Alvarez is dangerous countering off the ropes so it takes a certain prudence to get off shots and get out. Munguia may be strong enough to get Alvarez on the ropes and in the corner but I feel he will linger and be sucked into trading blows.

For my liking, Munguia would need to start patient in round 1-3 behind his jab and looking to avoid counters while gaining respect and keeping the fight close. Rounds 4-7 will likely be when Alvarez presses his advantage and takes his risks. Munguia can afford to lose these rounds and save himself for down the stretch and pour it on after riding out a mid fight storm. Munguia would need to win the final third to have a chance to pull out a close decision. I don’t envision a scenario where he stops Alvarez but he hits hard enough to hurt him.

How I think it actually plays out? I believe Alvarez will come out aggressively to start the fight and put pressure on the younger Munguia. I expect him to hurt Munguia early with counter punches that he sets up with feints and jabs to draw a reaction. Body punching the big torso of Munguia will keep him guessing to where his hands should be. I think Munguia is very tough and Alvarez has not been knocking guys out lately. Canelo may go for the kill to prove a point and make a statement or may be content going 12. I pick Canelo to win in clear fashion but there could be speed bumps.