Predicting Taylor vs Lopez & Munguia vs Derevyanchenko

Josh Taylor vs Teofimo Lopez

Tonight from Madison Square Garden Josh Taylor defends his WBO 140 lb title for the first time and the fourth defense of his Ring Magazine title. Taylor had held all four of the major titles in this division but was stripped when mandatory challengers demanded their shot and Taylor pushed for his rematch with Jack Catteral. Taylor ran the gauntlet by unifying titles and defeating the best the division had to offer and was briefly seen as a threat to Terrence Crawford. In his backyard last year, Taylor was fortunate to escape with his titles following a close fight with Catteral. I did score the fight for Catteral but have not watched the fight since given the ugly nature of the bout. Injuries blocked the Catteral match and Taylor had dumped belts to make it so Lopez has come as a high profile replacement.

Teofimo Lopez was seen as a young rising star amid the COVID pandemic and was brought in to unify belts vs Vasily Lomachenko. Many at the time felt this was a bridge too far, too soon; Lopez went on to shock Lomachenko in a breakout performance. Lopez would subsequently snub Lomachenko in a rematch, get into a mess with the streaming service Triller, and wind up getting in the ring with George Kambosos who was a highly ranked lightweight but not viewed as elite. With big fights on the line vs Devon Haney, Gervonta Davis, and Ryan Garcia on the line; Lopez hit the canvas and was out-boxed by the Aussie underdog in New York City. Lopez’s meteoric rise was brought back down to earth and he has since gone 2-0 in his venture into the 140 lb division. Much like Taylor, Lopez is also coming off of a controversial decision win over Sandor Martin. Lopez has lost a lot of standing for the Kambosos and Martin performances but he is still rated based on his Lomachenko fight and potential upside.

Was the Catteral fight a one off? Are Taylor’s struggles to make weight leave him in a position of vulnerability? Can Teofimo win a fight vs the elite of the 140 lb division? Is Teofimo an elite boxer or a flash in the pan? These are the questions that observers ponder heading into this showdown at Madison Square Garden later tonight. My gut reaction to the signing of this fight was Taylor is going to win. All these weeks later and I am still picking Taylor. I believe the bigger and stronger Taylor is going to be able to bully Lopez in there. Lopez hits hard and is explosive but Taylor has taken hard punches off the cream of the crop at 140. This fight may have scary moments for the defending champion but I confidently predict a decision win. Taylor is also a very rugged fighter coming out on top in a dirty, foul filled fight against Catteral and bent the rules when required to defeat Jose Carlos Ramirez. Taylor has a lot to prove and has also been stoked by Lopez’s comments about killing Taylor in this fight. Recently, fighters threatening to kill their opponents have not fared well.

Jaime Munguia vs Sergey Derevyanchenko

Munguia and SD meet at super middleweight in Munguia’s debut there. Munguia at 26 has stalled a bit in his career going from multiple defense titleholder at 154 lbs before moving to middleweight. When a WBO champion moves up in weight they are immediately considered for contention at another weight class and Munguia has been at middleweight for three years and never pressed the issue for a title fight. Shockingly, the WBC is making this a silver belt match at 168 where neither fighter has been competing and it feels like a cheap move to set up a Canelo match up. This fight is set to headline a DAZN card in Ontario, California and has gone largely unnoticed.

Munguia broke onto the scene in 2018 when he destroyed Sadam Ali at Turning Stone Casino to win the 154 lb WBO belt on HBO. He had been denied by the California Commission as a Golovkin opponent and earned his stripes winning and defending that title five times. Munguia had a scare in his fourth defense when he won a controversial decision over Denis Hogan; I scored that fight the other way. Munguia is currently 41-0 33 KO’s and has been 7-0 6 KO’s since moving to middleweight. Despite that record, Munguia has not secured or enforced opportunities to face the champions in the division like Golovkin, Jermall Charlo, and Demetrius Andrade. Munguia has defeated a list of good fighters but struggled mightily in his Johnson and Kelly fights. Munguia has always been an offensive monster with a hard punch but has struggled defensively. Munguia is able to be out-boxed and will lose rounds and eat big punches. SD is not a heavy puncher but he is a very skilled boxer. Munguia hired Erik Morales to train him and the idea was to shore up his defense; he will need it tonight.

SD has been a hard luck fighter at middleweight throughout his career. The Ukrainian born based in New York came up the ranks showing great promise. His style was high volume pressure but incredibly technical and defensively responsible. He has challenged for middleweight belts three times and has come up short all three times on points. His fights with Danny Jacobs and Gennady Golovkin saw him hit the canvas and lose by 1-2 points; I scored his fight vs Golovkin 114-113 for SD. After going nip tuck with those two champions, SD was defeated handily by Jermall Charlo and then lost a close fight to Carlos Adames. SD has been in a number of hard fights and at 37 he may be slowing down.

I expect this fight to be a toe to toe war and Munguia only knows one way, forward and SD will likely oblige. I believe that SD at his very best will out-box and counter Munguia to pieces but he is hardly the young fighter he used to be. Munguia still has been able to deliver his power punches and turn the tide in fights he was losing and has eventually caught and bombed out most of his opponents. I expect SD to start effectively before Munguia overwhelms him down the stretch of the fight. I am not sure SD hits hard enough to complete the job, has enough left in the tank to go to war again and will avoid a slug-fest long enough to win the decision. I want to clarify that if SD were at the top of his game he wins a clear decision after surviving a few rallies. I expect Munguia to take this fight, I think it goes twelve rounds.